Chevron Challenge 2009, Nedbank 2009, Australian Open 2009 betting preview

Nedbank 2009: Have backed Karlsson to win at 18-1. Other than that I am tempted to sell Watney, Goosen and Karlsson on spreads. The course suits long-hitters, and also I think at this time of the season it pays to look for players who are motivated and not exhausted. That rules out most of the field hence these 3 are my picks. Also BUYing Cabrera and Stenson since Stenson is favourite and Cabrera 4th favourite (on IG Index), which appears optimistic.

Chevron Challenge 2009: Based on the above, I am looking for fresh players, players in form, players who have played well here before (not as important though), and players who are good starters. My last criterion, good starters, means players who normally start off a season well as opposed to those who need a few tournaments to get going. I am looking at this as some of these players have not played for quite a few weeks and therefore could be rusty.
So my picks are Stricker, Harrington, Zach Johnson and Furyk (maybe Villegas, not sure yet).

Australian Open 2009: I do think you need to take into account ability to play in wind here, and recent form. Last years Aussie Open had some wind so is not a bad place to start when looking players with that ability. On top of that I am looking for players showing some form but not looking like they are putting their feet up for christmas quite yet. So my list is: Baddeley, Conran, Senden, Sim, Scott, Percy, O'Hern, Nitties, Molder, Both, Long, Hall, R.Green, Dodt, and Chalmers.

Omega Hills 2009 summary

A good week in the end as I made £82 profit (£137 gain cumulative), made of:


Spreads:

Italy +8 points

India -3

Singaport +1.5

Spain -18.50

TOTAL = -12 points @ £1 a point


Fixed Odds: I backed Italy with £5 at 18-1 to win = £90 win


Net £4 profit on Japan tour, won't bother to list it out.


Shocking result by Spain really, I didn't see enough of the golf to say why but I imagine they became disheartened by poor putting!?


Anyway, preview of Australian Open 2009 et al to come later today.

CUMULATIVE GAIN IS NOW: £137 Gain

Omega Hills World Cup 2009

Not really much to say on this one because I find it really hard to find any discernible pattern on this format. I am going to plump for a few teams though based on form, ability, freshness and motivation.

So of the favourites I am selling (ie think they will do better than their quoted place): Spain 8, Italy 8

Also selling less favourites: India 11.5, and Singapore 18.

I will add some tips for Casio WG in Japan shortly.

Dubai World Championship 2009 review

Overall not too bad a week but I lost 49 points = £24.50.

I added Adam Scott to my sells and also sold Ogilvy after the 1st round, as he was playing well but did not hole many putts, which I thought might improve in the 2nd round. Fortunately I was correct on that.

Mistakes: I think in hindsight Schwartzel had been playing well for too long and was due a bad week; also Rose was too low a price at 20 for someone who has been inconsistent all year, so I probably shouldn't have backed them to do well. Otherwise my selections were reasonably good!

Cumulative profit since this blog started = £80 last week less £24.50 this week = £55 up (rounded).

Dubai World Championship Preview

Well, I will post my results from last week shortly when I look at my account statements, but calculate I am about 200 points up. I used £0.5 per point so that translates to £100 profit. Thats the good news. The bad news is the names I quoted on my preview probably made a loss (as I have said before I back about 15 players per tournament and did not quote all of them last week). Anyway, I will post more details on that soon.

Looking forward to this week, I think there are a number of players who can be discarded for being short-hitters. Although I have no doubt there will be a couple of shorter hitters who do well in Dubai, this looks bound to favour overall the long-hitters and quality ball strikers. So am discounting Kjeldsen, Poulter, Wilson, A.Hansen, Jacquelin, P.Hanson and Jimenez.

Also, there are a number of players who have been playing well for a number of weeks who must at some point start to play badly - so I can also discount them, on the basis that they are currently playing above themselves and it can't continue for ever, or that they must be getting tired. I am going to include Westwood, Jaidee and Liang in this category - and both must be getting a little tired after playing many times recently.

There are other players I am ignoring due to erratic form.

That leaves with the following sells: Aiken (42), C-Bello (36), Edfors (34), Els (15), F-Castano (34), Garcia (16), Goosen (22), Kaymer (16), Lawrie (31), Mcilroy (14), Molinari (21), Noren (25), Oosthuizen (29), Quiros (28), Rose (20), S.Hansen (23), Schwartzel (25), JM Singh (28), Villegas (22), Wall (26) and Willett (29).

Buys: Jacquelin (35), Jimenez (30), Maybin (35), Mcgrane (38).

Thats all for now - I may come up with some Phoenix Dunlop tips if I see some prices anywhere.

UBS HK 2009, Australian Masters 2009, Childrens Miracle Network

Hi - a very quick post due to time pressures:

Updated thoughts on the UBS HK Open - I still agree with my earlier post. I am also backing D.Beck and A.Dodt as australians who may perform well, and also want to add J.Singh to my earlier list as a well priced quality player who is hitting form after injury.

Australian Masters: Most of the known favourite players will probably do well (although maybe not great value), but I see some value in Tadini, who has been playing well on the Euro tour and is priced at about 44 on the spreads. Also Cameron Percy is an Australian player who has consistently performed well and deserves a lower price than he has been given.

Childrens Miracle: I am not going to list everyone I am backing (I tend to back about 10-15 players per tournament), but my recommendations would be Petrovic, Trahan, Herron, Riley, Piercy, Snedeker, Garrigus and Toms. No time to say why but lets see how they do and see if my tips are rubbish. UPDATE - since they're doing well I am going to add my other picks: Klauk, Leonard, Ames, Streelman, Van Pelt, O'Hern, Slocum, Crane, Bohn, and Fowler. This now covers all the players in this tournament that I have backed as sells on finishing positions.

UBS Hong Kong Open 2009 preview

As per the past few years, this year's tourney is at Hong Kong GC, Fanling. Its a short course at just 6,734 yards (Par 70). So its not surprising that the shorter hitters have had more success here than at some other tournaments. Looking at the statistics of the past few years, you should be looking especially at players who are putting and scrambling well, and good Greens in Regulation stats are useful too (although that would apply to any tournament really). Asian players have had a good deal of success here (WT Lin won last year, and KJ Choi and Jaidee were 2nd and 3rd the previous year) - maybe thats not surprising since there are lots of Asian players playing in an Asian tournament. Overall, a different type of player than the usual big-hitting US and European stars has a chance of success.

I'll give more detailed tips at the start of next week (mid afternoon GMT on monday 9th), but players I am currently favouring are (when I say "good scrambler" or "short hitter", I am basing this on Euro PGA statistics):

Dredge - good scrambler, short hitter, good form, 19th last year
Jimenez - good scrambler, won it in 2007
Mcdowell - good scrambler, decent form, 11 last year
Molinari and Schwartzel - both good scramblers and decent form
Ben Curtis - good short game
Dyson, Kjeldsen and Poulter - top quality players whose shorter length won't negatively affect them on this course
Asian and Australian players - I need to do more research on these still, but expect WT Lin and WC Liang to do well

Outsiders - Monty may be favoured by the short course and has shown glimpses of form recently, Karlsson may have had enough time to get his game in order after his recent eye troubles and is a good scrambler

Introduction

Hi for the first time - this blog will attempt to pass on my tips for spread-betting on golf tournaments every week, both on the European Tour, PGA Tour, and other tours there is a high profile golf event.

I hope readers will post comments on my tips, and pass on their own predictions and advice.
I will try and be as entertaining as possible but frankly I'm pretty tedious so can't promise too much fun!

The particular area I will focus on is Finishing Positions. For example, a spreadbetting company may quote a price of 5 for Tiger Woods in this week's HSBC Champions tournament in China. This means they think he will finish 5th. My blog will attempt to identify mispricings of players - so if I think Woods will do worse than 5th I will say he is a BUY, but if I think in fact he will place better than 5th, I will say he is a SELL. I will attempt to justify my tips!

I will attempt to publish my results so that readers can see if I have any success. I am too late to post advice on this weeks tournament as it is already half way through, but I will try and tip on next weeks tournament, the UBS Hong Kong Open.

Best of luck, and remember to do your own research if you are betting big money (don't blame me if I get it wrong, I'm trying to help!).