Yet another hurried post - £60 gain last week, giving £78 gain cumulative since blog started.
Qatar
A long course, subject to strong winds, Bermuda grass - looking for quality ball strikers and those who have had success in the past here, combined with a semblance of recent form.
TOP 5: Kaymer, Oosthuizen, Quiros, Garcia, Goosen
Outsiders: E.Molinari, Fernandez-Castano, Fichardt, Otto, Peter Lawrie
Buys (i.e.betting against): Casey, Poulter, F.Molinari
Farmers Insurance
This is split between a long course and short course. Both are pretty tough and there has been a lot of rain so the fairways are soft, and the rough is thick. Also the greens tend to spike up in the afternoon. So I am looking for long-hitters, good scramblers, good GIR %, past success here, combined with some form recently. In addition, those players who played last week I expect to be a little unprepared and jaded as the tournament lasted 6 days.
I am going to back mainly players who play on the North course on thursday, or tee off early on the South course, as the players who play thursday afternoon on the South course look to be getting the worse of the conditions. Anyone who has an average round or better on the South course on thursday afternoon will then come into contention to back before friday's round start.
Top 5: Klauk, D.Johnson, Leishman, Allenby, Crane
Outsiders: Haas, M.Jones, Sutherland, Rollins
Buys (betting against) : Streelman, Ames, Mickelson (yes he may win it but he can be erratic at the start of the season and his odds are too low)
Thursday 28 January 2010
Friday 22 January 2010
Adu Dhabi Golf Championship 2010 preview, Bob Hope preview 2010
This is a bit late but I didn't have time to post until now. I am basing this on my thoughts from Tuesday. This will be brief as its too late really, being Friday already.
Abu dhabi
Looking for good drivers of the ball and quality ball strikers - people who have done well here in the past, and who are either in decent form or are good starters (a lot of the top players have not played for quite a few weeks). So, here goes:
My TOP-5: Mcilroy, Westwood, Karlsson, Casey, Oosthuizen
Nothing very controversial there - I bought (ie bet against) Garcia, Mcdowell, and Jimenez of the top players due to injury/inconsistency.
My OUTSIDERS/WORTH A PUNT: Quiros, Jaidee, Willett, Edfors, Horne
Bob Hope Classic
As many people have said this is a bit unusual as theres 5 rounds and its a pro-am, so I'm looking for form combined with past good performances in Pro-Ams.
TOP 5: Campbell, Verplank, Senden, Howell III, and Clark
OUTSIDERS: Trahan, Merrick, DeLaet, Crane, Baird
BUYS (ie bet against): Gay, Petterson, Palmer, Perez, Fowler
Abu dhabi
Looking for good drivers of the ball and quality ball strikers - people who have done well here in the past, and who are either in decent form or are good starters (a lot of the top players have not played for quite a few weeks). So, here goes:
My TOP-5: Mcilroy, Westwood, Karlsson, Casey, Oosthuizen
Nothing very controversial there - I bought (ie bet against) Garcia, Mcdowell, and Jimenez of the top players due to injury/inconsistency.
My OUTSIDERS/WORTH A PUNT: Quiros, Jaidee, Willett, Edfors, Horne
Bob Hope Classic
As many people have said this is a bit unusual as theres 5 rounds and its a pro-am, so I'm looking for form combined with past good performances in Pro-Ams.
TOP 5: Campbell, Verplank, Senden, Howell III, and Clark
OUTSIDERS: Trahan, Merrick, DeLaet, Crane, Baird
BUYS (ie bet against): Gay, Petterson, Palmer, Perez, Fowler
Tuesday 19 January 2010
Joburg Open/Sony Open 2010 review
A strange week for me - I made a £90 loss on the week although my posted tips were quite successful. Of my "Top 5" picks for the Sony Open, 2 made it into the top 5, which is a good result. From my outsiders, WC Liang was 25th, although the others were less successful. In the Joburg Open I was less successful - 1 of my outsiders came 12th (a Top 20 by one of the outsiders is normally quite profitable), but none of my "Top 5" made it - although I mentioned the winner, Schwartzel, as one of the people I expected to do well.
Preview of this week's events later today...
Preview of this week's events later today...
Wednesday 13 January 2010
Sony Open 2010 preview
As I mentioned in my last post, there seem to be so many potential winners here this week. That is a good thing if you are spread-betting like me but makes it tricky if you're trying to pick a winner.
Moving on, as most tipsters have said, this track in Hawaii suits experienced, accurate players, good ball strikers, not necessarily the modern day 'bombers'. There are plenty of players who have consistently finished in the Top 30 here over the years, and my picks are based on that, allied to anyone showing recent form, either last week or in November/December 2009.
I will not explain all 30 of my picks, but will choose a Top 5 and then 3 outsiders.
Top 5: Donald, Na, Allenby, Appleby, Stricker
Luke Donald hit form over the winter and came 23rd here last year. He should be over any nagging issues from his wrist injury and it may be time for him to win again.
Na: Came 5th last year and 4th the year before, and had plenty of Top 10 finishes last year
Appleby: Seems to have regained his form in Australia over the winter, and has 3 top 10s in 6 starts here
Allenby: Won 2 tournaments over the winter in Australia, and we all know he is a top ball striker
Stricker: This is a pretty obvious choice and he had 3 good rounds last week, ruined by his first
3 Outsiders: Molder - good form in Aus, success at windy venues; Liang - a real outsider but carries decent form over from the winter and this course may be his best chance of success in the US. Simpson - seems to be hit or miss here, he either comes Top 10 or misses the cut.
Moving on, as most tipsters have said, this track in Hawaii suits experienced, accurate players, good ball strikers, not necessarily the modern day 'bombers'. There are plenty of players who have consistently finished in the Top 30 here over the years, and my picks are based on that, allied to anyone showing recent form, either last week or in November/December 2009.
I will not explain all 30 of my picks, but will choose a Top 5 and then 3 outsiders.
Top 5: Donald, Na, Allenby, Appleby, Stricker
Luke Donald hit form over the winter and came 23rd here last year. He should be over any nagging issues from his wrist injury and it may be time for him to win again.
Na: Came 5th last year and 4th the year before, and had plenty of Top 10 finishes last year
Appleby: Seems to have regained his form in Australia over the winter, and has 3 top 10s in 6 starts here
Allenby: Won 2 tournaments over the winter in Australia, and we all know he is a top ball striker
Stricker: This is a pretty obvious choice and he had 3 good rounds last week, ruined by his first
3 Outsiders: Molder - good form in Aus, success at windy venues; Liang - a real outsider but carries decent form over from the winter and this course may be his best chance of success in the US. Simpson - seems to be hit or miss here, he either comes Top 10 or misses the cut.
Joburg Open preview 2010
Last week I lost £15, giving me a cumulative blog gain of £108. Not much to say really about that - not too bad, not great.
Looking ahead to this week, there seems to me so many players who look like good bets this week. Maybe I am wrong or maybe these are 2 events where its easy to pick good performers (note that I focus on spreadbetting so I can pick 40 players if I like and make a profit on all of them theoretically - if I were making fixed odd bets then of course it would be more difficult this week as there are so many players to choose from - although one could focus on Top 20 places perhaps with some success this week).
Anyway, after that ramble, I'll start with the Joburg Open. The first thing to note here is that this is played over 2 courses this week and there are lots more players playing than normal because of this (easier to fit in more players). The West course was on average 3 shots easier than the East course last year, over the first 2 rounds. I presume the bookies are aware of this and will adjust odds accordingly after round 1 - I will be checking this just in case they don't though!
Second, it appears that good driving was an important - the successful players tended to be solid in both driving accuracy and driving distance. I have not discerned any other unusual characteristics about these courses. So the only other factors I am basing my picks on are recent form and past form on this course.
Looking ahead to this week, there seems to me so many players who look like good bets this week. Maybe I am wrong or maybe these are 2 events where its easy to pick good performers (note that I focus on spreadbetting so I can pick 40 players if I like and make a profit on all of them theoretically - if I were making fixed odd bets then of course it would be more difficult this week as there are so many players to choose from - although one could focus on Top 20 places perhaps with some success this week).
Anyway, after that ramble, I'll start with the Joburg Open. The first thing to note here is that this is played over 2 courses this week and there are lots more players playing than normal because of this (easier to fit in more players). The West course was on average 3 shots easier than the East course last year, over the first 2 rounds. I presume the bookies are aware of this and will adjust odds accordingly after round 1 - I will be checking this just in case they don't though!
Second, it appears that good driving was an important - the successful players tended to be solid in both driving accuracy and driving distance. I have not discerned any other unusual characteristics about these courses. So the only other factors I am basing my picks on are recent form and past form on this course.
I do think the usual suspects will do well here - Schwartzel etc. So my top 5 are:
A.Hansen, Molinari, Mclardy, Oosthuizen, and Sterne
There are other players who are worth a spreadbet though, or a top 20 place bet. So, the list of these players is long and I will not bore you with them all. However, notable ones are:
Rock - good distance, consistent play in 2009, good recent form, ok performance here when he last played
Andersson Hed - this player is one of the form players of the past 3 months and I see no reason for this to change here, yet he is very seldom mentioned by any tipsters
Mclardy - great record here and qualified for the PGA tour recently so his game must be in order
Morrison - 38th here last year, 4th last week, consistent player in 2009
Van Zyl - multiple winner on Sunshine tour, consistent, 28th last week, 47th week before after an opening 76
Maritz - consistent performer, 28th last week, 28th last year here
De Jager - consistent performer, also 28th last week
Sony Open to follow later today.
Monday 4 January 2010
SBS Championship 2010 Preview
For this first US tournament of the year it is hard to know who to back, as its some time since the last PGA tournament. However, looking back at the results for this tournament, it does seem that more success has come to those players who have decent recent form elsewhere in the world (eg Australia or Asia). Also, there are a few players who seem to like playing in Hawaii - unsurprisingly this means they tend to play well here. Further to these two requirements, there are certain players who seem to play well at the start of the year, while others take time to get going. Other key areas here are long putting (the greens are very large), distance (there are wide and fairways here), and liking for Bermuda Greens.
So based on those criteria, I expect the following to do well:
O'Hair, Ogilvy, Perry, Z.Johnson, Stricker, Watney, Ames and Goosen.
Best value seem to be Ames, Watney and O'Hair.
I think of the outsiders, Matteson may outperform, and Kelly. Last, I have a feeling that Casey may want to come of the starting blocks on all cylinders given his frustrations last year due to injury.
My TOP 3: Casey, O'Hair, and Watney
So based on those criteria, I expect the following to do well:
O'Hair, Ogilvy, Perry, Z.Johnson, Stricker, Watney, Ames and Goosen.
Best value seem to be Ames, Watney and O'Hair.
I think of the outsiders, Matteson may outperform, and Kelly. Last, I have a feeling that Casey may want to come of the starting blocks on all cylinders given his frustrations last year due to injury.
My TOP 3: Casey, O'Hair, and Watney
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