Due to work, yet another short post.
Avantha Masters
A new tournament for the European tour this week, although there have been some Asian Tour events here and in 2008 the Johnnie Walker Classic was held here. However the winner that week, Mark Brown, was on a hot run of form and should be discounted this week. This course is reasonably short and the field is very weak. My picks will be based mainly on recent form and an added bonus if a player has performed well here before, or at least in Asia.
TOP 5
Randhawa, Derksen, Clarke, Singh, Horne
Outsiders
Siem, Bland, Wiratchant
AT&T Pebble Beach
There are a lot of factors to consider in this weeks tournament, more so than normal. There's a bigger field than usual, one of the courses has very small greens, another has large greens, one of the courses (Pebble Beach) can get hit hard by the weather so the forecast and draw can be big factors, previous successful players here have had good scores on the PAR 5s in particular, this is a PRO AM so some players like these and some don't - that will do for now. Based on these (and recent rain maybe helping the big hitters):
Top 5:
Furyk, Donald, Gay, Watney, Goosen
Outsiders
Marino, Van Pelt, Mallinger, Prugh
Thursday, 11 February 2010
Monday, 8 February 2010
Dubai Masters review 2010
After a week without posting, a summary is that I was £77 down last week and £158 up this week, giving a cumulative gain of £159 for the blog.
Preview of this weeks tournaments to follow.
Preview of this weeks tournaments to follow.
Thursday, 28 January 2010
Qatar Masters and Farmers Insurance 2010 Preview
Yet another hurried post - £60 gain last week, giving £78 gain cumulative since blog started.
Qatar
A long course, subject to strong winds, Bermuda grass - looking for quality ball strikers and those who have had success in the past here, combined with a semblance of recent form.
TOP 5: Kaymer, Oosthuizen, Quiros, Garcia, Goosen
Outsiders: E.Molinari, Fernandez-Castano, Fichardt, Otto, Peter Lawrie
Buys (i.e.betting against): Casey, Poulter, F.Molinari
Farmers Insurance
This is split between a long course and short course. Both are pretty tough and there has been a lot of rain so the fairways are soft, and the rough is thick. Also the greens tend to spike up in the afternoon. So I am looking for long-hitters, good scramblers, good GIR %, past success here, combined with some form recently. In addition, those players who played last week I expect to be a little unprepared and jaded as the tournament lasted 6 days.
I am going to back mainly players who play on the North course on thursday, or tee off early on the South course, as the players who play thursday afternoon on the South course look to be getting the worse of the conditions. Anyone who has an average round or better on the South course on thursday afternoon will then come into contention to back before friday's round start.
Top 5: Klauk, D.Johnson, Leishman, Allenby, Crane
Outsiders: Haas, M.Jones, Sutherland, Rollins
Buys (betting against) : Streelman, Ames, Mickelson (yes he may win it but he can be erratic at the start of the season and his odds are too low)
Qatar
A long course, subject to strong winds, Bermuda grass - looking for quality ball strikers and those who have had success in the past here, combined with a semblance of recent form.
TOP 5: Kaymer, Oosthuizen, Quiros, Garcia, Goosen
Outsiders: E.Molinari, Fernandez-Castano, Fichardt, Otto, Peter Lawrie
Buys (i.e.betting against): Casey, Poulter, F.Molinari
Farmers Insurance
This is split between a long course and short course. Both are pretty tough and there has been a lot of rain so the fairways are soft, and the rough is thick. Also the greens tend to spike up in the afternoon. So I am looking for long-hitters, good scramblers, good GIR %, past success here, combined with some form recently. In addition, those players who played last week I expect to be a little unprepared and jaded as the tournament lasted 6 days.
I am going to back mainly players who play on the North course on thursday, or tee off early on the South course, as the players who play thursday afternoon on the South course look to be getting the worse of the conditions. Anyone who has an average round or better on the South course on thursday afternoon will then come into contention to back before friday's round start.
Top 5: Klauk, D.Johnson, Leishman, Allenby, Crane
Outsiders: Haas, M.Jones, Sutherland, Rollins
Buys (betting against) : Streelman, Ames, Mickelson (yes he may win it but he can be erratic at the start of the season and his odds are too low)
Friday, 22 January 2010
Adu Dhabi Golf Championship 2010 preview, Bob Hope preview 2010
This is a bit late but I didn't have time to post until now. I am basing this on my thoughts from Tuesday. This will be brief as its too late really, being Friday already.
Abu dhabi
Looking for good drivers of the ball and quality ball strikers - people who have done well here in the past, and who are either in decent form or are good starters (a lot of the top players have not played for quite a few weeks). So, here goes:
My TOP-5: Mcilroy, Westwood, Karlsson, Casey, Oosthuizen
Nothing very controversial there - I bought (ie bet against) Garcia, Mcdowell, and Jimenez of the top players due to injury/inconsistency.
My OUTSIDERS/WORTH A PUNT: Quiros, Jaidee, Willett, Edfors, Horne
Bob Hope Classic
As many people have said this is a bit unusual as theres 5 rounds and its a pro-am, so I'm looking for form combined with past good performances in Pro-Ams.
TOP 5: Campbell, Verplank, Senden, Howell III, and Clark
OUTSIDERS: Trahan, Merrick, DeLaet, Crane, Baird
BUYS (ie bet against): Gay, Petterson, Palmer, Perez, Fowler
Abu dhabi
Looking for good drivers of the ball and quality ball strikers - people who have done well here in the past, and who are either in decent form or are good starters (a lot of the top players have not played for quite a few weeks). So, here goes:
My TOP-5: Mcilroy, Westwood, Karlsson, Casey, Oosthuizen
Nothing very controversial there - I bought (ie bet against) Garcia, Mcdowell, and Jimenez of the top players due to injury/inconsistency.
My OUTSIDERS/WORTH A PUNT: Quiros, Jaidee, Willett, Edfors, Horne
Bob Hope Classic
As many people have said this is a bit unusual as theres 5 rounds and its a pro-am, so I'm looking for form combined with past good performances in Pro-Ams.
TOP 5: Campbell, Verplank, Senden, Howell III, and Clark
OUTSIDERS: Trahan, Merrick, DeLaet, Crane, Baird
BUYS (ie bet against): Gay, Petterson, Palmer, Perez, Fowler
Tuesday, 19 January 2010
Joburg Open/Sony Open 2010 review
A strange week for me - I made a £90 loss on the week although my posted tips were quite successful. Of my "Top 5" picks for the Sony Open, 2 made it into the top 5, which is a good result. From my outsiders, WC Liang was 25th, although the others were less successful. In the Joburg Open I was less successful - 1 of my outsiders came 12th (a Top 20 by one of the outsiders is normally quite profitable), but none of my "Top 5" made it - although I mentioned the winner, Schwartzel, as one of the people I expected to do well.
Preview of this week's events later today...
Preview of this week's events later today...
Wednesday, 13 January 2010
Sony Open 2010 preview
As I mentioned in my last post, there seem to be so many potential winners here this week. That is a good thing if you are spread-betting like me but makes it tricky if you're trying to pick a winner.
Moving on, as most tipsters have said, this track in Hawaii suits experienced, accurate players, good ball strikers, not necessarily the modern day 'bombers'. There are plenty of players who have consistently finished in the Top 30 here over the years, and my picks are based on that, allied to anyone showing recent form, either last week or in November/December 2009.
I will not explain all 30 of my picks, but will choose a Top 5 and then 3 outsiders.
Top 5: Donald, Na, Allenby, Appleby, Stricker
Luke Donald hit form over the winter and came 23rd here last year. He should be over any nagging issues from his wrist injury and it may be time for him to win again.
Na: Came 5th last year and 4th the year before, and had plenty of Top 10 finishes last year
Appleby: Seems to have regained his form in Australia over the winter, and has 3 top 10s in 6 starts here
Allenby: Won 2 tournaments over the winter in Australia, and we all know he is a top ball striker
Stricker: This is a pretty obvious choice and he had 3 good rounds last week, ruined by his first
3 Outsiders: Molder - good form in Aus, success at windy venues; Liang - a real outsider but carries decent form over from the winter and this course may be his best chance of success in the US. Simpson - seems to be hit or miss here, he either comes Top 10 or misses the cut.
Moving on, as most tipsters have said, this track in Hawaii suits experienced, accurate players, good ball strikers, not necessarily the modern day 'bombers'. There are plenty of players who have consistently finished in the Top 30 here over the years, and my picks are based on that, allied to anyone showing recent form, either last week or in November/December 2009.
I will not explain all 30 of my picks, but will choose a Top 5 and then 3 outsiders.
Top 5: Donald, Na, Allenby, Appleby, Stricker
Luke Donald hit form over the winter and came 23rd here last year. He should be over any nagging issues from his wrist injury and it may be time for him to win again.
Na: Came 5th last year and 4th the year before, and had plenty of Top 10 finishes last year
Appleby: Seems to have regained his form in Australia over the winter, and has 3 top 10s in 6 starts here
Allenby: Won 2 tournaments over the winter in Australia, and we all know he is a top ball striker
Stricker: This is a pretty obvious choice and he had 3 good rounds last week, ruined by his first
3 Outsiders: Molder - good form in Aus, success at windy venues; Liang - a real outsider but carries decent form over from the winter and this course may be his best chance of success in the US. Simpson - seems to be hit or miss here, he either comes Top 10 or misses the cut.
Joburg Open preview 2010
Last week I lost £15, giving me a cumulative blog gain of £108. Not much to say really about that - not too bad, not great.
Looking ahead to this week, there seems to me so many players who look like good bets this week. Maybe I am wrong or maybe these are 2 events where its easy to pick good performers (note that I focus on spreadbetting so I can pick 40 players if I like and make a profit on all of them theoretically - if I were making fixed odd bets then of course it would be more difficult this week as there are so many players to choose from - although one could focus on Top 20 places perhaps with some success this week).
Anyway, after that ramble, I'll start with the Joburg Open. The first thing to note here is that this is played over 2 courses this week and there are lots more players playing than normal because of this (easier to fit in more players). The West course was on average 3 shots easier than the East course last year, over the first 2 rounds. I presume the bookies are aware of this and will adjust odds accordingly after round 1 - I will be checking this just in case they don't though!
Second, it appears that good driving was an important - the successful players tended to be solid in both driving accuracy and driving distance. I have not discerned any other unusual characteristics about these courses. So the only other factors I am basing my picks on are recent form and past form on this course.
Looking ahead to this week, there seems to me so many players who look like good bets this week. Maybe I am wrong or maybe these are 2 events where its easy to pick good performers (note that I focus on spreadbetting so I can pick 40 players if I like and make a profit on all of them theoretically - if I were making fixed odd bets then of course it would be more difficult this week as there are so many players to choose from - although one could focus on Top 20 places perhaps with some success this week).
Anyway, after that ramble, I'll start with the Joburg Open. The first thing to note here is that this is played over 2 courses this week and there are lots more players playing than normal because of this (easier to fit in more players). The West course was on average 3 shots easier than the East course last year, over the first 2 rounds. I presume the bookies are aware of this and will adjust odds accordingly after round 1 - I will be checking this just in case they don't though!
Second, it appears that good driving was an important - the successful players tended to be solid in both driving accuracy and driving distance. I have not discerned any other unusual characteristics about these courses. So the only other factors I am basing my picks on are recent form and past form on this course.
I do think the usual suspects will do well here - Schwartzel etc. So my top 5 are:
A.Hansen, Molinari, Mclardy, Oosthuizen, and Sterne
There are other players who are worth a spreadbet though, or a top 20 place bet. So, the list of these players is long and I will not bore you with them all. However, notable ones are:
Rock - good distance, consistent play in 2009, good recent form, ok performance here when he last played
Andersson Hed - this player is one of the form players of the past 3 months and I see no reason for this to change here, yet he is very seldom mentioned by any tipsters
Mclardy - great record here and qualified for the PGA tour recently so his game must be in order
Morrison - 38th here last year, 4th last week, consistent player in 2009
Van Zyl - multiple winner on Sunshine tour, consistent, 28th last week, 47th week before after an opening 76
Maritz - consistent performer, 28th last week, 28th last year here
De Jager - consistent performer, also 28th last week
Sony Open to follow later today.
Monday, 4 January 2010
SBS Championship 2010 Preview
For this first US tournament of the year it is hard to know who to back, as its some time since the last PGA tournament. However, looking back at the results for this tournament, it does seem that more success has come to those players who have decent recent form elsewhere in the world (eg Australia or Asia). Also, there are a few players who seem to like playing in Hawaii - unsurprisingly this means they tend to play well here. Further to these two requirements, there are certain players who seem to play well at the start of the year, while others take time to get going. Other key areas here are long putting (the greens are very large), distance (there are wide and fairways here), and liking for Bermuda Greens.
So based on those criteria, I expect the following to do well:
O'Hair, Ogilvy, Perry, Z.Johnson, Stricker, Watney, Ames and Goosen.
Best value seem to be Ames, Watney and O'Hair.
I think of the outsiders, Matteson may outperform, and Kelly. Last, I have a feeling that Casey may want to come of the starting blocks on all cylinders given his frustrations last year due to injury.
My TOP 3: Casey, O'Hair, and Watney
So based on those criteria, I expect the following to do well:
O'Hair, Ogilvy, Perry, Z.Johnson, Stricker, Watney, Ames and Goosen.
Best value seem to be Ames, Watney and O'Hair.
I think of the outsiders, Matteson may outperform, and Kelly. Last, I have a feeling that Casey may want to come of the starting blocks on all cylinders given his frustrations last year due to injury.
My TOP 3: Casey, O'Hair, and Watney
Tuesday, 29 December 2009
Africa Open 2010 preview/review of S.African Open
The South African Open was another profitable week for me, with a £36 profit (blog cumulative is £123 profit). It could have been even better if one of my tips, Hennie Otto, hadn't racked up a 9 on a par-3 then withdrawn. I still don't know what happened - was this an injury or a mental short circuit?
One thing I learned for next year is that the morning starters seem to get the best of the conditions on last week's course - but they're moving to a different course next year so this seem irrelevant now! However, see below for my analysis of last year's Africa open, which may endure the same trend.
Looking ahead to the Africa Open at East London Golf Club, as far as I can tell this is going to be played on a very short course, at under 6,900 yards. I do think this will have an impact so previous form on this course would be helpful. The wind also plays a part here so successful links players may outperform.
Talking of wind, there is a theory that on coastal courses the morning starters tend to get the better conditions (wind picks up in pm, course dries out). It means that the players who tee off on Thursday afternoon can have their heads down by the time that they tee off in the better conditions on friday morning. This seems to have occurred in last week's SA Open, as already mentioned. I analysed last year's Africa Open to see if happened here, and it may have. The morning starters average score on thursday was 72.2, which increased to 73.6 when the same players played on friday afternoon. While the thursday afternoon starters averaged 73.3 on both thursday am and friday pm. The bright ones among you may point out that the thursday morning starters average score for the first two rounds is therefore more than the thursday afternoon starters, which opposes the "heads down" theory - but its important to note that all the top players teed off in the afternoon session on thursday so you would expect a much lower average for them. So, once the tee off times have been anounced for this year's Africa Open, I may tilt my selections towards morning starters.
Looking at last year's results it does seem that the players who played well at the South African Open tended to perform well here. So my sells this week are likely to be:
Kingston, Sterne, Schwartzel, Horne, Clarke, Hoey, Fichardt, Blaauw, Grace, Hed Andersson, Van Zyl, De Jager, and Canizares.
Top 5: Sterne, Kingston, Van Zyl, Andersson Hed, Fichardt
One thing I learned for next year is that the morning starters seem to get the best of the conditions on last week's course - but they're moving to a different course next year so this seem irrelevant now! However, see below for my analysis of last year's Africa open, which may endure the same trend.
Looking ahead to the Africa Open at East London Golf Club, as far as I can tell this is going to be played on a very short course, at under 6,900 yards. I do think this will have an impact so previous form on this course would be helpful. The wind also plays a part here so successful links players may outperform.
Talking of wind, there is a theory that on coastal courses the morning starters tend to get the better conditions (wind picks up in pm, course dries out). It means that the players who tee off on Thursday afternoon can have their heads down by the time that they tee off in the better conditions on friday morning. This seems to have occurred in last week's SA Open, as already mentioned. I analysed last year's Africa Open to see if happened here, and it may have. The morning starters average score on thursday was 72.2, which increased to 73.6 when the same players played on friday afternoon. While the thursday afternoon starters averaged 73.3 on both thursday am and friday pm. The bright ones among you may point out that the thursday morning starters average score for the first two rounds is therefore more than the thursday afternoon starters, which opposes the "heads down" theory - but its important to note that all the top players teed off in the afternoon session on thursday so you would expect a much lower average for them. So, once the tee off times have been anounced for this year's Africa Open, I may tilt my selections towards morning starters.
Looking at last year's results it does seem that the players who played well at the South African Open tended to perform well here. So my sells this week are likely to be:
Kingston, Sterne, Schwartzel, Horne, Clarke, Hoey, Fichardt, Blaauw, Grace, Hed Andersson, Van Zyl, De Jager, and Canizares.
Top 5: Sterne, Kingston, Van Zyl, Andersson Hed, Fichardt
Most of those will be fairly obvious as to why, but I will pick out a couple: Andersson Hed has had 4 top 5 places in his last 6 starts. Hoey is a good links player and has posted ok results in the last 2 tournaments, plus had a good result last year.
Monday, 14 December 2009
South African Open 2009
Last week I lost 100 points which is equal to £50, so I am now up £87 cumulatively. I lost £100 on the Dunhill Champ but won £50 on the Australian PGA. I think I made a loss because I had become overconfident and made too many left field picks which could not be backed up with enough logic.
Looking ahead to next week, the only event appears to be the South African Open. The course is reasonably long at 7400+ yards, but I have not been able to discern a pattern in terms of style of play that is effective there. Note that I look at the European PGA website which shows last year's leaderboard with each players statistics for that tournament, as a starting point).
I will be basing my picks by looking for quality or up and coming players who have been in reasonable form for the past few weeks. Yes this is a relatively simple method but I am looking for consistency or a tendency to bounce back after a bad week (which is an ability that some players seem to have while other players, conversely, have patches of good or bad form which may last for a few weeks in a row).
So, my picks this week, with some explanation where applicable:
PREDICTED PLAYERS IN TOP 5: Sterne, Molinari, Mulroy, Mcgrane, and Mcgowan.
SELLs:Bourdy, Canizares, Drysdale, Fichardt, Finch, Garrido, A.Hansen, Horne, Kapur, Kingston, Lorenzo-Vera, Lowry, Maybin, Mcgowan, Mcgrane, Molinari, Mulroy, Oosthuizen, Otto, Rock, Sandelin, Schwartzel, Sterne, Van Zyl, Zanotti.
BUYs: S.Hansen, Henningsson
There are some players in there who missed the cut last week. But I have picked them either because I believe they were rusty after time off (and only missed the cut by 1 shot so are close to form - eg Van Zyl and Otto) or they have displayed consistent "bouncebackability" (eg Oosthuizen & Drysdale). A lot of the others are picked for fairly obvious reasons but I will say that Lorenzo-Vera would normally be too inconsistent for me, but I noticed that he seems to have certain favourite events where he does well and others where he continues to miss the cut. This is one of the events he did well at in 2008 so I picked him.
I am buying S.Hansen because I suspect he will be among the favourites but he is a consistently slow starter to a season. I am not sure if Henningsson will be available to bet on as a finishing position, but if he is then I think he is likely to miss the cut given recent form (he did well here last year so he may be priced).
I have some maybes that I may back if well priced: Abery, Aiken, Bothma, Cabrera-Bello, Hoey, Ilonen, Khan, Luiten, Martin, Mclean, and Whiteford.
Looking ahead to next week, the only event appears to be the South African Open. The course is reasonably long at 7400+ yards, but I have not been able to discern a pattern in terms of style of play that is effective there. Note that I look at the European PGA website which shows last year's leaderboard with each players statistics for that tournament, as a starting point).
I will be basing my picks by looking for quality or up and coming players who have been in reasonable form for the past few weeks. Yes this is a relatively simple method but I am looking for consistency or a tendency to bounce back after a bad week (which is an ability that some players seem to have while other players, conversely, have patches of good or bad form which may last for a few weeks in a row).
So, my picks this week, with some explanation where applicable:
PREDICTED PLAYERS IN TOP 5: Sterne, Molinari, Mulroy, Mcgrane, and Mcgowan.
SELLs:Bourdy, Canizares, Drysdale, Fichardt, Finch, Garrido, A.Hansen, Horne, Kapur, Kingston, Lorenzo-Vera, Lowry, Maybin, Mcgowan, Mcgrane, Molinari, Mulroy, Oosthuizen, Otto, Rock, Sandelin, Schwartzel, Sterne, Van Zyl, Zanotti.
BUYs: S.Hansen, Henningsson
There are some players in there who missed the cut last week. But I have picked them either because I believe they were rusty after time off (and only missed the cut by 1 shot so are close to form - eg Van Zyl and Otto) or they have displayed consistent "bouncebackability" (eg Oosthuizen & Drysdale). A lot of the others are picked for fairly obvious reasons but I will say that Lorenzo-Vera would normally be too inconsistent for me, but I noticed that he seems to have certain favourite events where he does well and others where he continues to miss the cut. This is one of the events he did well at in 2008 so I picked him.
I am buying S.Hansen because I suspect he will be among the favourites but he is a consistently slow starter to a season. I am not sure if Henningsson will be available to bet on as a finishing position, but if he is then I think he is likely to miss the cut given recent form (he did well here last year so he may be priced).
I have some maybes that I may back if well priced: Abery, Aiken, Bothma, Cabrera-Bello, Hoey, Ilonen, Khan, Luiten, Martin, Mclean, and Whiteford.
Monday, 7 December 2009
Alfred Dunhill Championship 2009 preview, Australian PGA 2009 preview
Last week I appeared to break even, with a lot of ups and downs all cancelling each other out, so cumulative blog gain is still +£137. Looking forward to this Thursday:
Alfred Dunhill Championship 2009
Looking at the stats from the event in 2008, it was heavily dominated by the longest hitters in the tournament. Also, the 2006 tournament was won by the long hitting Alvaro Quiros. However the 2007 one was less dominated by long hitters, and GIR seemed more important. This leaves me wondering whether there was a change in set up last year (shorter rough?), which could be partly correlated with the fact that the winning score was much lower in 2008 than in 2007.
So should I be biased towards long hitters this year? No idea. The other areas I have been looking at are the successful Euro PGA tour qualifiers from the 2009 Challenge Tour and the Qualifying School. The best of these often do well in the events with weaker fields at the start of the year, such as this one (like Horsey, Willett and Cabrera-Bello last year).
Overall I will lean towards the long hitters but not exclusively so. Last, it does seem that certain players have more success in South Africa than others, and it is not surprising that African players themselves are the ones who seem to thrive. There are a core set of quality young African players at the moment and I will be including them in my tips.
I am going to split my choices into 3 groups based on big names, maybes, and outsiders:
Big Names - The South Africans Els, Oosthuizen, Aiken, and Schwartzel must all have good chances and fit my outlined profile. I won't include Sterne here due to his erratic recent form. Last person for this group is Eduardo Molinari who is playing very well. I am not going to back Els as his quoted finishing position of 15 looks too low given some inconsistency in his season.
Maybes
Cabrera-Bello, Drysdale, Maybin, A.Hansen, Otto. I think Otto could do well here - he won in Namibia a couple of weeks ago and came 29th at this venue last year.
Outsiders who could make Top 20 with luck
I will quickly list a few that I might back for Top 20 places - Van Zyl, Whiteford, Mclean, Fichardt, Dixon, Delamontagne, Davies, Colsaert, Cayeux, Boyd, Canizares, Andersson
Alfred Dunhill Championship 2009
Looking at the stats from the event in 2008, it was heavily dominated by the longest hitters in the tournament. Also, the 2006 tournament was won by the long hitting Alvaro Quiros. However the 2007 one was less dominated by long hitters, and GIR seemed more important. This leaves me wondering whether there was a change in set up last year (shorter rough?), which could be partly correlated with the fact that the winning score was much lower in 2008 than in 2007.
So should I be biased towards long hitters this year? No idea. The other areas I have been looking at are the successful Euro PGA tour qualifiers from the 2009 Challenge Tour and the Qualifying School. The best of these often do well in the events with weaker fields at the start of the year, such as this one (like Horsey, Willett and Cabrera-Bello last year).
Overall I will lean towards the long hitters but not exclusively so. Last, it does seem that certain players have more success in South Africa than others, and it is not surprising that African players themselves are the ones who seem to thrive. There are a core set of quality young African players at the moment and I will be including them in my tips.
I am going to split my choices into 3 groups based on big names, maybes, and outsiders:
Big Names - The South Africans Els, Oosthuizen, Aiken, and Schwartzel must all have good chances and fit my outlined profile. I won't include Sterne here due to his erratic recent form. Last person for this group is Eduardo Molinari who is playing very well. I am not going to back Els as his quoted finishing position of 15 looks too low given some inconsistency in his season.
Maybes
Cabrera-Bello, Drysdale, Maybin, A.Hansen, Otto. I think Otto could do well here - he won in Namibia a couple of weeks ago and came 29th at this venue last year.
Outsiders who could make Top 20 with luck
I will quickly list a few that I might back for Top 20 places - Van Zyl, Whiteford, Mclean, Fichardt, Dixon, Delamontagne, Davies, Colsaert, Cayeux, Boyd, Canizares, Andersson
Monday, 30 November 2009
Chevron Challenge 2009, Nedbank 2009, Australian Open 2009 betting preview
Nedbank 2009: Have backed Karlsson to win at 18-1. Other than that I am tempted to sell Watney, Goosen and Karlsson on spreads. The course suits long-hitters, and also I think at this time of the season it pays to look for players who are motivated and not exhausted. That rules out most of the field hence these 3 are my picks. Also BUYing Cabrera and Stenson since Stenson is favourite and Cabrera 4th favourite (on IG Index), which appears optimistic.
Chevron Challenge 2009: Based on the above, I am looking for fresh players, players in form, players who have played well here before (not as important though), and players who are good starters. My last criterion, good starters, means players who normally start off a season well as opposed to those who need a few tournaments to get going. I am looking at this as some of these players have not played for quite a few weeks and therefore could be rusty.
So my picks are Stricker, Harrington, Zach Johnson and Furyk (maybe Villegas, not sure yet).
Australian Open 2009: I do think you need to take into account ability to play in wind here, and recent form. Last years Aussie Open had some wind so is not a bad place to start when looking players with that ability. On top of that I am looking for players showing some form but not looking like they are putting their feet up for christmas quite yet. So my list is: Baddeley, Conran, Senden, Sim, Scott, Percy, O'Hern, Nitties, Molder, Both, Long, Hall, R.Green, Dodt, and Chalmers.
Chevron Challenge 2009: Based on the above, I am looking for fresh players, players in form, players who have played well here before (not as important though), and players who are good starters. My last criterion, good starters, means players who normally start off a season well as opposed to those who need a few tournaments to get going. I am looking at this as some of these players have not played for quite a few weeks and therefore could be rusty.
So my picks are Stricker, Harrington, Zach Johnson and Furyk (maybe Villegas, not sure yet).
Australian Open 2009: I do think you need to take into account ability to play in wind here, and recent form. Last years Aussie Open had some wind so is not a bad place to start when looking players with that ability. On top of that I am looking for players showing some form but not looking like they are putting their feet up for christmas quite yet. So my list is: Baddeley, Conran, Senden, Sim, Scott, Percy, O'Hern, Nitties, Molder, Both, Long, Hall, R.Green, Dodt, and Chalmers.
Omega Hills 2009 summary
A good week in the end as I made £82 profit (£137 gain cumulative), made of:
Spreads:
Italy +8 points
India -3
Singaport +1.5
Spain -18.50
TOTAL = -12 points @ £1 a point
Fixed Odds: I backed Italy with £5 at 18-1 to win = £90 win
Net £4 profit on Japan tour, won't bother to list it out.
Shocking result by Spain really, I didn't see enough of the golf to say why but I imagine they became disheartened by poor putting!?
Anyway, preview of Australian Open 2009 et al to come later today.
CUMULATIVE GAIN IS NOW: £137 Gain
Spreads:
Italy +8 points
India -3
Singaport +1.5
Spain -18.50
TOTAL = -12 points @ £1 a point
Fixed Odds: I backed Italy with £5 at 18-1 to win = £90 win
Net £4 profit on Japan tour, won't bother to list it out.
Shocking result by Spain really, I didn't see enough of the golf to say why but I imagine they became disheartened by poor putting!?
Anyway, preview of Australian Open 2009 et al to come later today.
CUMULATIVE GAIN IS NOW: £137 Gain
Tuesday, 24 November 2009
Omega Hills World Cup 2009
Not really much to say on this one because I find it really hard to find any discernible pattern on this format. I am going to plump for a few teams though based on form, ability, freshness and motivation.
So of the favourites I am selling (ie think they will do better than their quoted place): Spain 8, Italy 8
Also selling less favourites: India 11.5, and Singapore 18.
I will add some tips for Casio WG in Japan shortly.
So of the favourites I am selling (ie think they will do better than their quoted place): Spain 8, Italy 8
Also selling less favourites: India 11.5, and Singapore 18.
I will add some tips for Casio WG in Japan shortly.
Monday, 23 November 2009
Dubai World Championship 2009 review
Overall not too bad a week but I lost 49 points = £24.50.
I added Adam Scott to my sells and also sold Ogilvy after the 1st round, as he was playing well but did not hole many putts, which I thought might improve in the 2nd round. Fortunately I was correct on that.
Mistakes: I think in hindsight Schwartzel had been playing well for too long and was due a bad week; also Rose was too low a price at 20 for someone who has been inconsistent all year, so I probably shouldn't have backed them to do well. Otherwise my selections were reasonably good!
Cumulative profit since this blog started = £80 last week less £24.50 this week = £55 up (rounded).
I added Adam Scott to my sells and also sold Ogilvy after the 1st round, as he was playing well but did not hole many putts, which I thought might improve in the 2nd round. Fortunately I was correct on that.
Mistakes: I think in hindsight Schwartzel had been playing well for too long and was due a bad week; also Rose was too low a price at 20 for someone who has been inconsistent all year, so I probably shouldn't have backed them to do well. Otherwise my selections were reasonably good!
Cumulative profit since this blog started = £80 last week less £24.50 this week = £55 up (rounded).
Tuesday, 17 November 2009
Dubai World Championship Preview
Well, I will post my results from last week shortly when I look at my account statements, but calculate I am about 200 points up. I used £0.5 per point so that translates to £100 profit. Thats the good news. The bad news is the names I quoted on my preview probably made a loss (as I have said before I back about 15 players per tournament and did not quote all of them last week). Anyway, I will post more details on that soon.
Looking forward to this week, I think there are a number of players who can be discarded for being short-hitters. Although I have no doubt there will be a couple of shorter hitters who do well in Dubai, this looks bound to favour overall the long-hitters and quality ball strikers. So am discounting Kjeldsen, Poulter, Wilson, A.Hansen, Jacquelin, P.Hanson and Jimenez.
Also, there are a number of players who have been playing well for a number of weeks who must at some point start to play badly - so I can also discount them, on the basis that they are currently playing above themselves and it can't continue for ever, or that they must be getting tired. I am going to include Westwood, Jaidee and Liang in this category - and both must be getting a little tired after playing many times recently.
There are other players I am ignoring due to erratic form.
That leaves with the following sells: Aiken (42), C-Bello (36), Edfors (34), Els (15), F-Castano (34), Garcia (16), Goosen (22), Kaymer (16), Lawrie (31), Mcilroy (14), Molinari (21), Noren (25), Oosthuizen (29), Quiros (28), Rose (20), S.Hansen (23), Schwartzel (25), JM Singh (28), Villegas (22), Wall (26) and Willett (29).
Buys: Jacquelin (35), Jimenez (30), Maybin (35), Mcgrane (38).
Thats all for now - I may come up with some Phoenix Dunlop tips if I see some prices anywhere.
Looking forward to this week, I think there are a number of players who can be discarded for being short-hitters. Although I have no doubt there will be a couple of shorter hitters who do well in Dubai, this looks bound to favour overall the long-hitters and quality ball strikers. So am discounting Kjeldsen, Poulter, Wilson, A.Hansen, Jacquelin, P.Hanson and Jimenez.
Also, there are a number of players who have been playing well for a number of weeks who must at some point start to play badly - so I can also discount them, on the basis that they are currently playing above themselves and it can't continue for ever, or that they must be getting tired. I am going to include Westwood, Jaidee and Liang in this category - and both must be getting a little tired after playing many times recently.
There are other players I am ignoring due to erratic form.
That leaves with the following sells: Aiken (42), C-Bello (36), Edfors (34), Els (15), F-Castano (34), Garcia (16), Goosen (22), Kaymer (16), Lawrie (31), Mcilroy (14), Molinari (21), Noren (25), Oosthuizen (29), Quiros (28), Rose (20), S.Hansen (23), Schwartzel (25), JM Singh (28), Villegas (22), Wall (26) and Willett (29).
Buys: Jacquelin (35), Jimenez (30), Maybin (35), Mcgrane (38).
Thats all for now - I may come up with some Phoenix Dunlop tips if I see some prices anywhere.
Wednesday, 11 November 2009
UBS HK 2009, Australian Masters 2009, Childrens Miracle Network
Hi - a very quick post due to time pressures:
Updated thoughts on the UBS HK Open - I still agree with my earlier post. I am also backing D.Beck and A.Dodt as australians who may perform well, and also want to add J.Singh to my earlier list as a well priced quality player who is hitting form after injury.
Australian Masters: Most of the known favourite players will probably do well (although maybe not great value), but I see some value in Tadini, who has been playing well on the Euro tour and is priced at about 44 on the spreads. Also Cameron Percy is an Australian player who has consistently performed well and deserves a lower price than he has been given.
Childrens Miracle: I am not going to list everyone I am backing (I tend to back about 10-15 players per tournament), but my recommendations would be Petrovic, Trahan, Herron, Riley, Piercy, Snedeker, Garrigus and Toms. No time to say why but lets see how they do and see if my tips are rubbish. UPDATE - since they're doing well I am going to add my other picks: Klauk, Leonard, Ames, Streelman, Van Pelt, O'Hern, Slocum, Crane, Bohn, and Fowler. This now covers all the players in this tournament that I have backed as sells on finishing positions.
Updated thoughts on the UBS HK Open - I still agree with my earlier post. I am also backing D.Beck and A.Dodt as australians who may perform well, and also want to add J.Singh to my earlier list as a well priced quality player who is hitting form after injury.
Australian Masters: Most of the known favourite players will probably do well (although maybe not great value), but I see some value in Tadini, who has been playing well on the Euro tour and is priced at about 44 on the spreads. Also Cameron Percy is an Australian player who has consistently performed well and deserves a lower price than he has been given.
Childrens Miracle: I am not going to list everyone I am backing (I tend to back about 10-15 players per tournament), but my recommendations would be Petrovic, Trahan, Herron, Riley, Piercy, Snedeker, Garrigus and Toms. No time to say why but lets see how they do and see if my tips are rubbish. UPDATE - since they're doing well I am going to add my other picks: Klauk, Leonard, Ames, Streelman, Van Pelt, O'Hern, Slocum, Crane, Bohn, and Fowler. This now covers all the players in this tournament that I have backed as sells on finishing positions.
Friday, 6 November 2009
UBS Hong Kong Open 2009 preview
As per the past few years, this year's tourney is at Hong Kong GC, Fanling. Its a short course at just 6,734 yards (Par 70). So its not surprising that the shorter hitters have had more success here than at some other tournaments. Looking at the statistics of the past few years, you should be looking especially at players who are putting and scrambling well, and good Greens in Regulation stats are useful too (although that would apply to any tournament really). Asian players have had a good deal of success here (WT Lin won last year, and KJ Choi and Jaidee were 2nd and 3rd the previous year) - maybe thats not surprising since there are lots of Asian players playing in an Asian tournament. Overall, a different type of player than the usual big-hitting US and European stars has a chance of success.
I'll give more detailed tips at the start of next week (mid afternoon GMT on monday 9th), but players I am currently favouring are (when I say "good scrambler" or "short hitter", I am basing this on Euro PGA statistics):
Dredge - good scrambler, short hitter, good form, 19th last year
Jimenez - good scrambler, won it in 2007
Mcdowell - good scrambler, decent form, 11 last year
Molinari and Schwartzel - both good scramblers and decent form
Ben Curtis - good short game
Dyson, Kjeldsen and Poulter - top quality players whose shorter length won't negatively affect them on this course
Asian and Australian players - I need to do more research on these still, but expect WT Lin and WC Liang to do well
Outsiders - Monty may be favoured by the short course and has shown glimpses of form recently, Karlsson may have had enough time to get his game in order after his recent eye troubles and is a good scrambler
I'll give more detailed tips at the start of next week (mid afternoon GMT on monday 9th), but players I am currently favouring are (when I say "good scrambler" or "short hitter", I am basing this on Euro PGA statistics):
Dredge - good scrambler, short hitter, good form, 19th last year
Jimenez - good scrambler, won it in 2007
Mcdowell - good scrambler, decent form, 11 last year
Molinari and Schwartzel - both good scramblers and decent form
Ben Curtis - good short game
Dyson, Kjeldsen and Poulter - top quality players whose shorter length won't negatively affect them on this course
Asian and Australian players - I need to do more research on these still, but expect WT Lin and WC Liang to do well
Outsiders - Monty may be favoured by the short course and has shown glimpses of form recently, Karlsson may have had enough time to get his game in order after his recent eye troubles and is a good scrambler
Introduction
Hi for the first time - this blog will attempt to pass on my tips for spread-betting on golf tournaments every week, both on the European Tour, PGA Tour, and other tours there is a high profile golf event.
I hope readers will post comments on my tips, and pass on their own predictions and advice.
I will try and be as entertaining as possible but frankly I'm pretty tedious so can't promise too much fun!
The particular area I will focus on is Finishing Positions. For example, a spreadbetting company may quote a price of 5 for Tiger Woods in this week's HSBC Champions tournament in China. This means they think he will finish 5th. My blog will attempt to identify mispricings of players - so if I think Woods will do worse than 5th I will say he is a BUY, but if I think in fact he will place better than 5th, I will say he is a SELL. I will attempt to justify my tips!
I will attempt to publish my results so that readers can see if I have any success. I am too late to post advice on this weeks tournament as it is already half way through, but I will try and tip on next weeks tournament, the UBS Hong Kong Open.
Best of luck, and remember to do your own research if you are betting big money (don't blame me if I get it wrong, I'm trying to help!).
I hope readers will post comments on my tips, and pass on their own predictions and advice.
I will try and be as entertaining as possible but frankly I'm pretty tedious so can't promise too much fun!
The particular area I will focus on is Finishing Positions. For example, a spreadbetting company may quote a price of 5 for Tiger Woods in this week's HSBC Champions tournament in China. This means they think he will finish 5th. My blog will attempt to identify mispricings of players - so if I think Woods will do worse than 5th I will say he is a BUY, but if I think in fact he will place better than 5th, I will say he is a SELL. I will attempt to justify my tips!
I will attempt to publish my results so that readers can see if I have any success. I am too late to post advice on this weeks tournament as it is already half way through, but I will try and tip on next weeks tournament, the UBS Hong Kong Open.
Best of luck, and remember to do your own research if you are betting big money (don't blame me if I get it wrong, I'm trying to help!).
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